The American elections of 2000 and 2004 reveal a deep divide in the United States that is symptomatic of an even deeper change occurring in American society. America faces a period of profound change as it enters the middle years of the first decade of the 21st century. The depth of that change, however, is masked by the turmoil created as conservative and liberal values clash.

In the days following the re-election of President George Bush, conservative commentators and Republican politicians were quick to claim they have been given a mandate by the American people to continue to push a conservative agenda.

Democratic politicians and liberal commentators were just as quick to argue that the Bush administration had no such mandate, given that more than 55 million people voted for the Democratic presidential candidate.

However, with the Republican victory less than 48 hours old, some senior Republicans were already cautioning the President against pushing too conservative a political agenda. Senator Arlen Spector (PA), for example warned against putting forth Supreme Court nominees who would seek to overturn abortion rights or are otherwise too conservative to win confirmation.

The outcome of the popular vote for the presidential election (51% to 48%) points to continuing deep divisions in the American population. As well, the dominant theme of the election (the war against terrorism and the war in Iraq), including the American's historical reluctance to toss a president out of office while troops are in the field, obscured the role of social issues in swinging the election towards George Bush and the Republican party.

Some political commentators have termed the deep divisions in America and the bitter struggle between conservative and liberal values a "culture war". At stake is control of the social and political agenda of the United States .

In the fall of 2004, the divide between Democrat and Republican was clear. But just as striking are the assessments of political commentators such as Pat Buchanan, who once sought the nomination as the Republican candidate for president. Buchanan stated just prior to the November 2 election that, win or lose, the Republican party itself is likely to explode into "civil war" in the period following the 2004 elections. At the root of this conflict is a deep division between the conservative and moderate elements of the Republican party.

In the middle of the first decade of the 21st century, America faces a 25- to 30- year period of intense social, political, economic and technological change.

The challenges facing the country at the end of 2004 include:

• a war that it won and a peace which may keep it militarily engaged in Iraq for several more years
• an implacable enemy intent on a global guerrilla war that will bleed America financially as well as in human terms (the "war on terror")
• proliferation of weapons of mass destruction among ideological foes (North Korea and Iran, and perhaps other nations)
• a deteriorating image abroad and outright hostility in the Muslim world
• relations with long-standing allies that have been serious strained since the American invasion of Iraq (including lose of the "moral high ground" and structural changes in the American-European alliance )
• record financial deficits
• an economy still struggling to recover from recession

To gain an understanding of the shifts occurring in American society, it is necessary to look at political and social trends reaching as far back as the American Revolution. An analysis of these trends reveals a consistent pattern of shifts between conservative and liberal values in the United States . The cyclic shifts (or swing of the pendulum, if you prefer) occur over a period of roughly 25 to 30 years.

If this two-century old pattern holds true, the United States is in the midst of a major transition from conservative to liberal social and political values, with 2004 being dead center in the transition period.

An analysis to American trends and events across religion, morality, philosophy, and human rights reveals a series of "conservative" and "liberal" periods over the life of the nation. The most recent "conservative" period began in the late-1970s and reached its peak between 1994 and 1998. Conservative dominance of the American social and political landscape, though still potent (as the 2004 elections demonstrated), has begun to ebb.

As the pendulum begins to swing back towards the liberal end of the political spectrum, the nature of American politics and policies will change. But because of the lag time between the beginning of social change and its appearance in the public (and therefore political) eye, it may well be another five to 10 years before the United States begins to show significant evidence of this change.

Rise & Decline of the American Liberal Movement from 1945 to 1980

Studies done through the 1980s by Tom W. Smith at the National Opinion Research Center, University of Chicago found clear evidence of a change in American values in the period from 1945 to the early 1980s.

Smith noted that for about 30 years following World War II, American society saw a significant movement from conservative towards liberal values. This was manifested as widespread public support for:

Starting in 1945 in the wake of World War II, significant liberal gains occurred in American society before leveling out in the mid-1970s.

“It suggests a fairly steady level of liberal gain from the early 1950s until about 1973/1974 and then a leveling-off of liberal movement through the mid-1980s (the liberal plateau)... there was a decided shift among trends before and after 1974. Prior to 1974 the trends were overwhelmingly liberal…while since 1974 there has been almost an even balance between liberal and conservative trends.” (Smith, 1989)

Many liberal trends leveled-off and some even reversed direction in the 1970s. Perhaps the two most notable features of this liberal plateau period are:

1) that overall society did not reverse from liberalism to conservatism, but the liberal gains of the post World War II period did level-off. While some liberal (and some conservative) trends did reverse direction, the general shift was from liberal advance to a liberal holding-pattern.

2) That this leveling-off did not happen after Reagan's victory in 1980 or even during 1978 with Republican election gains and the Proposition 13 tax revolt, but earlier in the seventies, around 1974. Of course some trends swung to the conservative side earlier than then (e.g. support for capital punishment increasing since the mid-1960s) or later (support for the legalization of marijuana leveling-off in 1978-1980 and dropping thereafter) and many other trends never did show significant declines (much less reversals). Still a number of trends showed points of inflection in 1974 or centered around that year. (Smith, 1989)

A number of factors lead to the leveling-off of the liberal movement in American, including:

• surge in crime starting in the 1960s
• drug-related crime in the 1970s, that triggered public support for greater social control
• stagflation of the 1970s eroded public support in the government's ability to successfully regulate the economy
• increasing tax burdens coupled failures in economic management and with social problems from welfare to urban renewal resulted a lose of confidence in government and its role in solving social ills (Smith, 1989).

Cycles of Financial Scandal Point to Change

The financial boom, bust and scandals of the 1980s and 1990s are, according to Kevin Phillips of The New York Times, indicators of pending change in American social values.

"America is at a turning point. Corporate scandals, the fall of the stock markets, the sudden mobilizations in Washington of the last few weeks to legislate against some of the more egregious corporate abuses: they all indicate that the nation's attitude toward business is changing. It is potentially a bigger change than many politicians realize." (Kevin Phillips, 2002)

Phillips argues that the financial ups and downs of the 1980s and 1990s in many ways paralleled the Gilded Age (roughly 1870 to 1884) and the Roaring Twenties (roughly 1920 to 1930). He also points out in the wake of these earlier periods, there were significant systemic changes in American attitudes towards business and the role of government.

"In the Gilded Age of the late 19th century and again in the Roaring Twenties, wealth momentum surged, the rich pulled away from everyone else and financial and technological innovation built a boom. Then it went partially or largely bust in the securities markets. Digging out is never easy. But this time, the deep-rooted nature of 'financialization' in the United States that developed in the 1980's and 90's may make it even tougher.

Near the peak of the great booms, old economic cautions are dismissed, financial and managerial operators sidestep increasingly inadequate regulations and ethics surrender to greed. Then, after the collapse, the dirty linen falls out of the closet. Public muttering usually swells into a powerful chorus for reform - deep, systemic changes designed to catch up with a whole new range and capacity for frauds and finagles and bring them under regulatory control." (Kevin Phillips, 2002)

America -- 2010 to 2030

If the patterns that have shaped American society since the American Revolution continue to hold true, the two decades from 2010 to 2030 are likely to be characterized by:

• strong economic growth
• rapid technological change
• increasing pressure for government regulation of business
• demands for more government involvement in social welfare (the health care and social security systems are likely to be high on the list)
• a more permissive society, including issues of gay rights
• a greater focus on spiritual exploration and a decline in fundamentalist and evangelical religious belief
• a shift towards greater American cooperation with multi-national institutions and less of a focus on unilateral action

This period is also likely to see increased social and civil unrest. This upsurge of unrest has parallels other, similar periods in American history:

• 1810s to 1820s -- student riots that plagued university campuses across the country
• mid-1840s to 1860 -- pre-Civil war unrest, including armed conflict along border states between the North and South
• mid-1890s to mid-1920 -- agrarian and labor unrest, which often turned violent
• mid-1950s to mid-1970s -- civil rights marches, anti-war protests and violent riots on university campuses and in American cities

Given the divisions in American society in 2000 and 2004, it would be a mistake to assume that the Republican political victory on Nov. 2, 2004 is a clear indicator of a shift to conservative values in American society. By the end of the Bush presidency in January, 2009, the shift from conservative to liberal values in American society should be well underway.

President Bush campaigned in 2000 as a leader who could unite the nation. By the end of his first term, Americans were more divided than ever. A critical question is, over the four years of his second term, whether he will focus on pulling together a country of sharply divided values, or whether he will pursue a strongly conservative social and political agenda that alienates millions of Americans.

Because the American presidency is limited to two terms, President Bush no longer needs to seek support among the more conservative elements of the Republican party and American society as a whole. For the next four years, he has the opportunity to chart a course that was not open to him during his first term. The critical question is whether he will continue to lean to the right, or whether he will move towards the center of the political spectrum.

How President Bush handles the next four years will determine, in large part, just how turbulent (and perhaps violent) the next quarter century will be.